Market fluctuates around the 1,300-point threshold

VIETNAM, July 15 - HÀ NỘI — The stock market experienced a volatile week after a previous strong performance. Improved cash flow supported the VN-Index, which at one point reached 1,297 points. However, selling pressure emerged towards the end of the week, erasing earlier gains.

On the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index closed the week at 1,280.75 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) ended at 245.02 points.

The former benchmark index recorded a slight fall of 0.18 per cent, while the latter increased by 1.12 per cent.

The average daily transaction value across the market was VNĐ19.5 trillion (US$767.3 million) per session, a significant rise of 16.6 per cent compared to the VNĐ16.7 trillion recorded the previous week.

Foreign investors continued to sell. Last week, they net sold VNĐ4.5 trillion on the HoSE and VNĐ4.68 billion on the HNX.

Phan Tấn Nhật, head of analysis at the Sài Gon-Hà Nội Securities (SHS), pointed out the market's support with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognising Việt Nam's rapid economic recovery in the first half of 2024, forecasting growth at 6.4 per cent year-on-year.

According to the IMF, Việt Nam's economy continues to integrate and has significantly recovered, with a growth rate of 6.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. IMF experts expect positive economic prospects towards the end of the year. Additionally, the IMF predicts inflation will remain close to the 4.5 per cent target.

Technically, Nhật noted that the VN-Index experienced a volatile week within a narrow range, facing mild adjustment pressure when approaching the 1,300-point resistance level, corresponding to the peaks in June 2024 and August 2022. The past week's market movements reflected the short-term rotation of cash flow through the alternating recovery of different stock groups.

“The VN-Index has yet to overcome the resistance around 1,285 points, the highest level during sharp declines with a surge in liquidity in April, May, and June 2024,” Nhật added.

In the short term, Nhật believes the VN-Index will continue to consolidate within the 1,250-1,300 point range. After encountering strong resistance around 1,300 points, the index is under adjustment pressure, testing the equilibrium price area of around 1,275 points, corresponding to the 20-day moving average.

In the medium term, Nhật assesses that the VN-Index will continue to accumulate within a narrowing range of 1,245-1,255 points to 1,300 points.

According to Nhật, market liquidity remains low as investors await information on second-quarter business results. On that basis, the market is expected to exhibit positive accumulation (if no new negative factors emerge) and the VN-Index is likely to head towards the resistance around 1,300 points when factors such as global geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, exchange rates, and foreign net selling ease.

The analysis team at Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) noted that the VN-Index closing at 1,280.75 points at the end of the past week indicates market hesitation around the old peak area of 1,280-1,290.

On the daily chart, indicators have yet to signal the formation of the first peak, while short-term potential risks have diminished. Although investors remain cautious at this time, selling pressure is not overwhelming, and VCBS expects the VN-Index to regain momentum towards the 1,300-point mark soon.

The VCBS team recommends that investors remain cautious by removing weaker stocks from their portfolios and increasing the proportion of stocks with stable momentum and a positive upward trend. — VNS