Spillovers in a “Post-Pandemic, Low-For-Long” World
In recent decades, countries have deepened their economic and financial interdependencies. Over the same period, global interest rates have fallen to historic lows, despite a slight pick-up this year. In this environment, countries have increasingly adopted policy mixes featuring unconventional monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions, macroprudential measures and capital flow management to cope better with the spillovers of a highly interconnected global economy. The COVID-19 pandemic introduced an additional layer of complexity, with consequences for the global economy, public finances, monetary policy and financial fragilities. This conference aims to close gaps in our understanding of the international transmission of local vulnerabilities and shocks in a post-pandemic, high-debt, low interest rate environment.
To register for the conference, please email: SpilloverConference2021@ecb.europa.eu
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Monday. April 26, 2021 (ET) |
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Opening Session |
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8:00 am |
Welcoming Remarks – Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB Monetary Autonomy in a Globalised World |
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SESSION 1:
Chair: Livio Stracca, ECB |
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8:30 am |
What Goes Around Comes Around: How Large Are Spillbacks from US Monetary Policy Really?
Max Breitenlechner (University of Innsbruck), Georgios Georgiadis (ECB), Ben Schumann (Free University of Berlin)
Discussant: Silvia Miranda-Agrippino (Bank of England)
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9:15 am |
Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data
Diego Cerdeiro (IMF), Andras Komaromi (IMF) Discussant: Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Texas at Austin)
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10:00 am |
Interest Rates and Foreign Spillovers
Roberto de Santis (ECB) and Srecko Zimic (ECB) Discussant: Chiara Scotti (Federal Reserve Board) |
| 10:40 am | Break |
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SESSION 2: Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policy Chair: Angela Maddaloni, ECB |
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11:00 am |
Surges and Instability: The Maturity Shortening Channel Xiang Li (Halle Institute for Economic Research), Dan Su (University of Minnesota)
Discussant: Mahvash Qureshi (IMF) |
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11:45 am |
Spillovers at the Extremes: Macroprudential Tools and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle Kristin Forbes (MIT Sloan), Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina), Karlye Dilts-Stedman (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
Discussant: Damiano Sandri (IMF) |
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12:25 pm |
Session Ends |
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April 27, 2021 (ET) |
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SESSION 3: Covid Effects and Monetary Policy Responses
Chair: Katrin Assenmacher, ECB |
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8:30 am |
An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins), Jonathan Hartley (Harvard University), Daniel Jimenez (EAFIT University)
Discussant: Kristina Bluwstein (Bank of England)
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9:15 am |
The Calming of Short-term Market Fears and its Long-term Consequences: The Federal Reserve's Reaction to COVID-19
Lerby Ergun (Bank of Canada), Mattia Bevilacqua (London School of Economics), Lukas Brandl-Cheng (London School of Economics), Jon Danielsson (London School of Economics), Andreas Uthemann (Bank of Canada), Jean-Pierre Zigrand (London School of Economics)
Discussant: Saleem Bahaj (Bank of England) |
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10:00 am |
ECB Euro Liquidity Lines
Silvia Albrizio (Bank of Spain), Ivan Kataryniuk (Bank of Spain), Luis Molina (Bank of Spain)
Discussant: Inaki Aldasoro (BIS) |
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10:40 am |
Session Ends |
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SESSION 4: Exchange Rates and Currency Exposures
Chair: Luca Dedola, ECB |
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11:10 am |
The Original Sin Redux: A Model-based Evaluation
Nikhil Patel (BIS), Boris Hofmann (BIS), Steve Pak Yeung Wu (University of British Columbia)
Discussant: Ozge Akinci (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
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11:45 am |
The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle
Giancarlo Corsetti (Cambridge University), Keith Kuester (University of Bonn), Gernot Mueller (University of Tubingen), Sebastian Schmidt (ECB)
Discussant: Anna Lipinska (Federal Reserve Board) |
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12:25 pm |
Session Ends |
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