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IMF Executive Board Completes Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement for Jamaica

Table 1. Jamaica: Selected Economic Indicators 1/

Population (2013): 2.8 million

Per capita GDP (2014): US$4955

Quota (current; millions SDRs/% of total): 382.9/0.08%

Literacy rate (2015)/Poverty rate (2016): 87%/17.1%

Main products: Alumina, tourism, chemicals, mineral fuels, bauxite, coffee, sugar

Unemployment rate (Apr. 2018): 9.7%

Prog.

Projections

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

2021/22

2022/23

(Annual percent change, unless otherwise indicated)

GDP and prices

Real GDP

0.2

1.0

1.4

0.9

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.2

Nominal GDP

7.2

7.7

5.9

8.1

6.8

5.5

7.1

6.9

7.2

7.3

Consumer price index (end of period)

4.0

3.0

4.1

4.0

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.0

Consumer price index (average)

7.2

3.4

2.4

4.6

5.0

3.7

5.5

5.0

5.0

5.0

Exchange rate (end of period, J$/US$)

115.0

122.0

128.7

126.0

Exchange rate (average, J$/US$)

113.1

118.8

127.3

127.9

Nominal depreciation (+), end-of-period

5.0

6.1

5.4

-2.1

End-of-period REER (appreciation +) (new methodology) 2/

-0.2

-2.4

-2.6

3.2

Treasury bill rate (end-of-period, percent)

7.0

5.8

6.3

5.1

Treasury bill rate (average, percent)

7.8

6.3

6.1

5.1

Unemployment rate (percent) 3/

14.2

13.3

12.7

9.7

(In percent of GDP)

Government operations

Budgetary revenue

26.3

27.0

27.9

29.0

29.3

29.8

28.9

28.6

28.5

28.3

Of which: Tax revenue 4/

23.6

24.5

25.7

25.7

25.8

25.9

25.4

25.3

25.3

25.3

Budgetary expenditure

26.7

27.3

28.1

28.6

29.5

29.6

28.1

27.9

27.4

26.8

Primary expenditure

18.8

19.8

20.3

21.6

22.4

22.8

22.0

22.1

22.0

21.8

Of which: Wages and salaries

9.5

9.7

9.3

9.2

9.2

9.1

9.1

9.0

8.8

8.8

Interest payments

8.0

7.4

7.8

7.0

7.1

6.8

6.2

5.8

5.4

5.0

Budget balance

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

0.5

-0.2

0.2

0.8

0.7

1.1

1.5

Of which: Central government primary balance

7.5

7.2

7.6

7.4

7.0

7.0

7.0

6.5

6.5

6.5

Public entities balance 8/

0.9

1.8

2.0

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Public sector balance

0.4

1.6

1.5

1.1

-0.2

0.2

0.8

0.7

1.1

1.5

Public debt (FRL definition) 4/ 6/

115.1

102.2

98.3

99.6

93.6

88.3

82.1

75.8

Public debt (EFF definition) 5/ 7/

139.7

121.3

121.8

109.1

104.8

105.8

99.0

92.7

85.2

77.7

External sector

Current account balance

-7.0

-2.0

-2.6

-5.4

-3.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.7

-3.6

-3.5

Of which: Exports of goods, f.o.b.

10.2

8.3

8.8

9.2

10.4

10.8

11.2

11.1

10.8

10.5

Exports of services

15.5

14.8

15.8

14.2

14.5

14.5

15.3

15.7

15.4

15.1

Of which: Imports of goods, f.o.b.

36.4

30.0

31.5

34.9

33.2

36.9

36.6

35.9

35.4

35.0

Imports of services

19.8

19.5

21.4

20.6

21.1

21.1

23.0

24.1

24.0

23.8

Net international reserves (US$ millions)

2,294

2,416

2,769

3,075

3,219

2,965

3,168

3,221

3,229

3,426

of which: non-borrowed

1,335

1,470

1,944

2,398

2,428

2,454

2,820

2,887

3,065

3,295

(Changes in percent of beginning of period broad money)

Money and credit

Net foreign assets

27.9

10.1

7.1

5.5

4.7

2.8

5.5

2.6

2.0

5.3

Net domestic assets

-22.3

8.6

15.4

2.6

2.1

2.7

1.6

4.3

5.3

2.1

Of which: Credit to the private sector

3.1

8.2

22.4

9.0

9.5

7.8

8.4

8.8

9.9

11.6

Of which: Credit to the central government

-15.2

5.5

0.4

2.8

5.2

2.8

0.0

-2.1

0.6

0.1

Broad money

5.7

18.7

22.5

8.1

6.8

5.5

7.1

6.9

7.2

7.3

Memorandum item:

Nominal GDP (J$ billions)

1,568

1,688

1,789

1,933

2,016

2,039

2,184

2,334

2,503

2,687

Sources: Jamaican authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

1/ Fiscal years run from April 1 to March 31. Authorities' budgets presented according to IMF definitions.

2/ The new methodology uses trade weights for Jamaica that also incorporate trade in services especially tourism.

3/ As of January 31.

4/ Consolidated central government and public bodies' debt, consistent with the Fiscal Responsibility Law. The most significant deviation from the EFF definition is the exclusion of debt to the IMF held by the BoJ.

5/ Central government direct debt, guaranteed debt, and debt holdings by PCDF, consistent with the definition used under the EFF approved in 2013

6/ Consistent with the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL), implementation of the FRL-consistent debt definition began in FY16/17. A backward series is not available since consistent data on public bodies' debt holdings is not available prior to FY16/17.

7/ The decrease in debt in FY15/16 partly reflects the PetroCaribe buyback operation that generated an immediate 10 percentage point reduction in debt. The increase in debt in FY16/17 partly reflects prefinancing for FY17/18 maturities.

8/ Projections for 18/19 reflect the special distribution from PCDF to Central Government, ahead of its reintegration by end 18/19.

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